Key Takeaways
- Crypto analyst Ben Cowen suggests Ethereum is unlikely to set new all-time highs in 2026, citing broader market conditions.
- If ETH does reclaim its peak near $4,900, it could be a "bull trap" followed by a sharp correction toward $2,000.
- This cautious outlook is linked to Bitcoin's potential bear market and warnings of a "meaningful drawdown" in 2026 from other firms.
- Cowen notes that among altcoins, only Ethereum has a plausible path to challenging its highs this cycle, with most others "cooked."
A Cautious Forecast for Ethereum's 2026 Trajectory
Prominent cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen has presented a sobering outlook for Ethereum (ETH), suggesting the smart contract giant is unlikely to achieve new all-time highs in 2026. His analysis hinges on the prevailing bearish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin, which often dictates the broader digital asset market's direction.
“If Bitcoin truly is in a bear market, which is what it feels like, it would be kind of hard for Ethereum to go up there,” Cowen stated during a recent appearance on the Bankless podcast.
This perspective follows veteran trader Peter Brandt's late December prediction that Bitcoin's price could plummet to around $60,000 by Q3 2026, setting a challenging stage for the entire crypto ecosystem.
The "Bull Trap" Scenario for ETH Price Action
Cowen outlined a specific risk for Ethereum investors. He theorized that even if Ether manages to reclaim its historic peak of $4,878—last touched in August 2024—the rally could be deceptive.
- Such a surge might constitute a "bull trap," a false signal of a sustained upward trend.
- This could be followed by a "sharp downward reversal" potentially driving the price back down to the $2,000 region.
This pattern would mirror recent market behavior. After briefly hitting $4,878 in August, ETH entered a downtrend, bottoming near $2,767 in November. At current levels around $2,900, a return to its all-time high would require a gain of over 40%.
Broader Market Implications and Altcoin Cycle
Importantly, Cowen does not see a potential Ethereum rally sparking a widespread altcoin season. He believes the bullish momentum would likely be isolated.
“The only altcoin that I’m even considering this for is Ethereum. I think a lot of the other altcoins are kind of cooked at this point for the cycle,” he explained, indicating most other tokens have missed their window for new highs this market cycle.
This view is compounded by external warnings. Investment firm Fundstrat Global Advisors reportedly alerted clients in mid-December to a potential "meaningful drawdown" in 2026, with Ether possibly falling to between $1,800 and $2,000.
A Diverging Opinion on Short-Term Potential
Not all analysts share this bearish 2026 forecast. Crypto analyst Crypto With James argued in mid-December that Ethereum is "not done yet" and that a move back toward its highs in the near term remains a possibility. This highlights the ongoing debate and uncertainty regarding Ethereum's price prediction and the overall crypto market cycle as the industry looks toward 2026.
