Key Takeaways
- Historical Support: Ethereum (ETH) is trading near the realized price of its largest holders, a level that has historically triggered significant rallies.
- Technical Patterns: Analysts identify bullish chart formations, including a V-shaped recovery and a falling wedge, with price targets reaching $5,000.
- Potential Catalysts: Increased institutional demand from treasury companies and the potential return of spot ETF inflows could fuel a major price surge.
- Long-Term Outlook: Some projections suggest ETH could reach or exceed $5,000 by 2026, supported by technical analysis against Bitcoin.
Ethereum's price action is flashing a compelling signal that has historically preceded massive bull runs. ETH is currently trading near a crucial on-chain metric—the realized price of its largest holders—suggesting a prime buying opportunity may be at hand. Analysts are now questioning whether history could repeat itself, projecting a potential surge that could propel Ether back to the $5,000 mark.
The Whale Support Zone: A History of Major Rallies
The ETH/USD pair recently experienced a significant drawdown, dropping 45% from its October high of $4,758 to a multi-month low of $2,621 on November 21. This decline brought the price perilously close to the realized price for whales holding over 100,000 ETH. This metric represents the average acquisition cost for these massive investors and has acted as a reliable support zone.
CryptoQuant analyst Onchain highlighted the rarity of this event, stating in a recent analysis: "Only four times in the last five years has ETH traded very close to the realized price of whales holding at least 100k ETH." The most recent instance occurred in April, from which ETH staged an impressive 260% rally to its all-time high of $5,000.
Echoing this observation, analyst Quentin Francois noted on X: "$ETH is currently trading at realized price of the biggest holders." Following a bounce from this trendline on November 22, ETH traded 23.5% higher by Friday, suggesting the support level may be holding.
Bullish Chart Patterns Point to $5,000
Beyond on-chain data, Ether's price technicals are painting an optimistic picture. A V-shaped recovery pattern is emerging on the weekly chart, a formation typically indicative of a strong rebound. For this pattern to complete, bulls need to push the price above the key 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,300. A successful breakout could see ETH rally towards the pattern's neckline at $4,955, representing a 53% gain from current levels.
Furthermore, other analysts point to a falling wedge pattern that projects a massive breakout for the leading altcoin. If these technical formations play out and are fueled by increased demand from Ethereum treasury companies and the return of spot ETF inflows, a rally to $5,000 becomes a plausible scenario.
The 2026 Outlook: A Path to $5,800?
The bullish case extends into the medium term. Several market observers believe ETH has the potential to reach $5,000 by 2026. This outlook is bolstered by Ether's technical structure against Bitcoin (BTC). An inverse head-and-shoulders (IH&S) formation on the ETH/BTC chart points to a potential 80% rally in 2026, which could translate to an ETH price exceeding $5,800.
Disclaimer: This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
